期刊名称：Discussion Paper Series / Department of Economics, New York University
出版年度：2005
卷号：1
出版社：New York University
摘要：We study here the effects of future tax and budgetary shocks on
present levels of economic activity and real interest rates in a nonmonetary
and possibly non-Ricardian economy. The paper first takes
up an (unanticipated) temporary tax cut to be effective on a given
future date—a delayed “debt bomb.” The sudden prospect of this
future-dated shock causes at once a drop in the (unit) value placed on
the firms’ business asset, the customer, and accordingly on the price
of shares—with the result that the hourly wage, hours worked and
GDP drop in tandem. This paradox of reduced activity through announcement
of future “stimulus” does not hinge on an upward jump
of long rates of interest, which may or may not occur: the short rate
of return on shares is increased by the initial drop in their price, but
the price has so much farther to fall that this is more than offset for
a time by the expectation of ongoing capital loss, so short rates of interest
actually drop. The paper next studies a future tax cut lacking
a “sunset” provision and requiring instead a gradual welfare benefit
adjustment to retain solvency. The same negative effects on present
activity result. Third, the paper shows that if the tax cut is effective
immediately, its effect is ambiguous, as the Marshallian supply-sider
effect works the other way. Finally, the paper also examines the new
anticipation of a future increase in the number of retirees in a payas-
you-go social security program. In conclusion, juxtaposing these
results against recent US experience, we hypothesize that the legislation
of an unsustainable fiscal gap—the cuts in tax rates and the
rise of future obligations owing to the cumulative deficit and the approaching
bulge in retirement benefits—is an important cause of the
decline in hours worked per employee and in the participation rates
over the period. (JEL: E24, E43, E62, F41)
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