期刊名称：Discussion Paper Series / Department of Economics, New York University
出版年度：2004
卷号：1
出版社：New York University
摘要：We seek to explain the economic volatility of the last 6 years, in particular
the rapid expansion and contraction of the knowledge sectors. Our
hypothesis is that these sectors amplify the business cycle due to their
increasing returns to scale, growing faster than others in an upswing and
contracting faster in a downswing. To test this hypothesis we postulate a
general equilibrium model with two sectors: one with increasing returns
that are external to the firm and endogenously determined — the knowledge
sector — and the other with constant returns to scale. We introduce a
new measure of volatility of output, a ‘real beta’, and derive a ‘resolving’
equation, from which we prove that the increasing return sectors exhibit
more volatility then other sectors. We validate the main results on US
macro economic data of real GDP by industry (2-3 digits SIC codes) of
the 1977-2001 period, and provide policy conclusions.
关键词：Volatility, Macroeconomics, Applied Microeconomics, General
Equilibrium, Knowledge Economy, Knowledge revolution, Increasing
Returns to Scale, External Economies of scale, Business Cycles
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