期刊名称：CORE Discussion Papers / Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (UCL), Louvain
出版年度：2009
卷号：1
出版社：Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (UCL), Louvain
摘要：We study a two-stage R&D project with an abandonment option. Two types of uncertainty
influence the decision to start R&D. Demand uncertainty is modelled as a lottery between a
proportional increase and decrease in demand. Technical uncertainty is modelled as a lottery
between a decrease and increase in the cost to continue R&D. We relate differences in
uncertainty to differences in risk premia. We deduct testable hypotheses on the basis of which
we empirically analyze the impact of uncertainty on the decision to start an R&D project.
Using data for about 4000 German firms in manufacturing and services (CIS IV), our model
predictions are strongly confirmed.
关键词：investment under uncertainty, R&D, demand uncertainty, technical uncertainty,
entry threat.
