期刊名称：Departmental Discussion Papers / University of Glasgow, Department of Economics
出版年度：2009
卷号：1
出版社：University of Glasgow, Department of Economics
摘要：Using a two-sector endogenous growth model, this paper explores
how productivity shocks in the goods and human capital producing
sectors contribute to explaining aggregate cycles in output, consump-
tion, investment and hours. To contextualize our ¯ndings, we also
assess whether the human capital model or the standard real business
cycle (RBC) model better explains the observed variation in these
aggregates. We ¯nd that while neither of the workhorse growth mod-
els uniformly dominates the other across all variables and forecast
horizons, the two-sector model provides a far better ¯t to the data.
Some other key results are ¯rst, that Hicks-neutral shocks explain a
greater share of output and consumption variation at shorter-forecast
horizons whereas human capital productivity innovations dominate
at longer ones. Second, the combined explanatory power of the two
technology shocks in the human capital model is greater than the
Hicks-neutral shock in the RBC model in the medium- and long-term
for output and consumption. Finally, the RBC model outperforms the
two-sector model with respect to explaining the observed variation in
investment and hours.
关键词：endogenous growth, human capital, real business cycles,
Bayesian estimation, VAR errors
