期刊名称：Departmental Discussion Papers / University of Glasgow, Department of Economics
出版年度：2006
卷号：1
出版社：University of Glasgow, Department of Economics
摘要：This paper examines the adjustment of developing country labor markets to
macroeconomic shocks. It models a two sector labor market: a formal salaried (tradable)
sector that may or may not be affected by union or legislation induced wage rigidities,
and an unregulated (nontradable) self-employment sector facing liquidity constraints to
entry. This is embedded in a standard small economy macro model that permits the
derivation of patterns of comovement among relative salaried/self-employed incomes,
salaried/self-employed sector sizes and the real exchange rate with respect to different
types of shocks in contexts with and without wage rigidities. The paper then explores
time series data from Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and Mexico to test for cointegrating
relationships corresponding to the patterns predicted by theory. We identify two types of
regime. The first corresponds to periods where demand shocks to the nontradable sector
offer new opportunities to (informal) entrepreneurs, the informal sector expands
“procyclically,” and the exchange rate overshoots toward appreciation in the short run, or
remains at its productivity determined levels. The second corresponds to periods of
negative shocks to the formal salaried sector in the presence of wage rigidities where the
sector plays a more traditional “buffer” role during downturns.
