期刊名称：CORE Discussion Papers / Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (UCL), Louvain
出版年度：2009
卷号：1
出版社：Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (UCL), Louvain
摘要：This paper attempts to explain the spatial variation of the use of a bicycle for commuting to work at the level of
the 589 municipalities in Belgium. Regression techniques were used and special attention was paid to
autocorrelation, heterogeneity and multicollinearity. Spatial lag models were used to correct for the presence of
spatial dependence and a disaggregated modelling strategy was adopted for the northern and southern parts of
the country. The results show that much of the inter-municipality variation in bicycle use is related to
environmental aspects such as the relief, traffic volumes and cycling accidents. Town size, distance travelled
and demographic aspects also have some effect. In addition, there are regional differences in the effects of the
structural covariates on bicycle use: the impact of variables such as traffic volume and cycling accidents differs
substantially between the north and the south of the country. This paper also suggests that high rates of bicycle
use in one municipality stimulate cycling in neighbouring municipalities, and hence that a mass effect can be
initiated, i.e. more cycle commuting encourages even more commuters in the area to cycle. These findings
provide some recommendations for decision-makers wishing to promote a shift from car to bicycle use.
关键词：: cycling, commuting, spatial lag model, spatial regime, pro-cycling strategies.
