首页    期刊浏览 2025年02月22日 星期六
登录注册

文章基本信息

  • 标题:Chaotic Nature of Energy Demand
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Jayashri Vajpai ; J.B. Arun
  • 期刊名称:World Applied Sciences Journal
  • 印刷版ISSN:1818-4952
  • 电子版ISSN:1991-6426
  • 出版年度:2010
  • 卷号:7
  • 期号:07
  • 出版社:International Digital Organization for Scientific Information Publications
  • 摘要:

    Energy forecasting plays a dominant role in the sustainable development economic optimization,
    resource planning and secure operation of electric power systems. The variation in energy demand is a
    major source of uncertainty in planning for future capacity enhancement, resource needs and operation of
    existing generation resources. Electric utilities need monthly peak and yearly demand forecasting for
    budgetary planning, maintenance scheduling and fuel management. The software tools currently used by
    the utilities and the various regulatory organizations indicate that ‘official long term energy demand’
    forecasts of these systems are based, at best, on some form of linear or log-log linear regression
    (econometric) models with the parameters often estimated using the ordinary least-squares method. These
    approaches aim to develop mathematical models on the basis of available data. Most of the utilities have
    attempted to build energy forecasting models based on different behavioural assumptions about the shape
    of the demand curve. The parameters of these models are estimated by a variety of techniques. However,
    the in-depth study of energy demand data carried out by the authors has revealed its chaotic nature. Hence,
    the conventional modeling techniques have resulted in limited success in the forecasting and modeling of
    energy demand. This paper aims to depict the chaotic nature of energy demand by carrying out
    experimental studies on U S energy data and comparing its distinguishing features such as Correlation
    Dimension, Embedding Dimension and False Nearest Neighbours, Lyapunov Exponents and Predictive
    Power, Return Map and Power Spectral Density with those of a benchmark chaotic systems, viz., Box and
    Jenkins gas furnace data. The results clearly indicate that energy demand should be treated as chaotic
    system for better efficacy in its modeling and prediction.

  • 关键词:Energy demand ; chaotic systems; Box and Jenkins gas furnace data ; correlation dimension; embedding dimension ; false nearest neighbours ; Lyapunov exponents; predictive power ; return map; power spectral density ; Alyuda Forecaster XL
国家哲学社会科学文献中心版权所有