摘要：This paper shows the existence of multiple equilibria in technology
the cycle. According to Cho (2008), two main reasons of faster
replacement demand for main computer systems are faster techno-
logical progress and increased demand for services a telecommuni-
cation company provides. This paper primarily focuses on the role
of faster technological progress due to the faster replacement de-
mand for mainframe computer systems. The cyclical relationship
among replacement demand for mainframe computer systems,
faster technological progress, and R&D expenditure shows mul-
tiple equilibria in technology. The technology cycle can happen as
follows. Increased replacement demand for mainframe computer
systems is induced by faster technological progress in computer
industry. Then, this induced replacement demand can increase
R&D expenditure in the computer industry. Again, this increased
R&D expenditure also causes faster technological progress. Using
data from Cho (2008) and a simple calibration, I show the exis-
tence of multiple equilibria in the above technology cycle, which
exist in both the lower part and higher part of technology cycle.
