期刊名称：Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics / Dresden University of Technology, Faculty of Business Management and Economics
印刷版ISSN：0945-4829
出版年度：2003
卷号：1
出版社：Dresden
摘要：Rational partisan theory of political business cycles suggests differences in inflation under
left-wing and right-wing governments. It also suggests temporary post-electoral booms after
election of left-wing governments and temporary recessions after election of right-wing ones.
However, the core hypothesis that post-electoral booms and recessions depend upon the
degree of pre-electoral uncertainty has rarely been tested. Using pre-electoral polling data, we
provide empirical evidence in favor of the hypothesis of the existence of rational partisan
cycles. We also show that - in line with most previous empirical studies - there is little
evidence for partisan cycles under adaptive expectations.
