期刊名称：Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics / Dresden University of Technology, Faculty of Business Management and Economics
印刷版ISSN：0945-4829
出版年度：2002
卷号：1
出版社：Dresden
摘要：This paper investigates contagion e®ects. In a model with highly and
lowly informed investors we show that a currency crisis in one country can
trigger a crisis in another country. Portfolio losses of the highly informed
investors in one country will force them to withdraw capital from the
other country. The behavior of the lowly informed investors multiplies
this e®ect and the other country becomes more and more vulnerable.
In the empirical part we focus on the Asian crisis (1997/98). Using a
LOGIT approach we can show that contagion, in the sense of a crisis
not explainable by economic fundamentals but by exchange rate losses
resulting from investment in other countries, seems to have caused the
currency crises of the Philippines and especially of Singapore.
