文章基本信息
- 标题：Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling of Hitting Performance in Baseball,
- 本地全文：下载
- 作者：Shane T. Jensen ; Blakeley B. Mcshane ; Abraham J. Wyner 等
- 期刊名称：Bayesian Analysis
- 印刷版ISSN：1931-6690
- 电子版ISSN：1936-0975
- 出版年度：2009
- 卷号：04
- 期号：04
- DOI：10.1214/09-BA424
- 出版社：International Society for Bayesian Analysis
- 摘要：
We have developed a sophisticated statistical model for predicting the
hitting performance of Major League baseball players. The Bayesian paradigm
provides a principled method for balancing past performance with crucial covari-
ates, such as player age and position. We share information across time and across
players by using mixture distributions to control shrinkage for improved accuracy.
We compare the performance of our model to current sabermetric methods on a
held-out season (2006), and discuss both successes and limitations. - 关键词：baseball; hidden Markov model; hierarchical Bayes
