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  • 标题:How Powerful is Demography? The Serendipity Theorem Revisited
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:David de la Croix† Pierre Pestieau‡ Gr´egory Ponthi`ere§
  • 期刊名称:Discussion Paper / Département des Sciences Économiques de l'Université Catholique de Louvain
  • 印刷版ISSN:1379-244X
  • 出版年度:2009
  • 卷号:1
  • 出版社:Université catholique de Louvain
  • 摘要:Introduced by Samuelson (1975), the Serendipity Theorem states that the competitive economy will converge towards the optimum steady-state provided the optimum population growth rate is imposed. This paper aims at exploring whether the Serendipity Theorem still holds in an economy with risky lifetime. We show that, under general conditions, including a perfect annuity market with actuarially fair return, imposing the optimum fertility rate and the optimum survival rate leads the competitive economy to the optimum steady-state. That Extended Serendipity Theorem is also shown to hold in economies where old adults work some fraction of the old-age, whatever the retirement age is fixed or chosen by the agents.
  • 关键词:Serendipity Theorem, fertility, mortality, overlapping generations, retirement.
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