期刊名称：Discussion Paper Series / Department of Economics, Monash University
出版年度：2009
卷号：1
出版社：Monash University
摘要：The Asian financial crisis in mid-1997 has increased interest in policies to achieve greater regional
exchange rate stability in East Asia. It has renewed calls for greater monetary and exchange rate
cooperation. A country’s suitability to join a monetary union depends, inter alia, on the trade intensity and
the business cycle synchronization with other potential members of the monetary union. However, these
two Optimum Currency Area criteria are endogenous. Theoretically, the effect of increased trade
integration (after the elimination of exchange fluctuations among the countries in the region) on the
business cycle synchronization is ambiguous. Reduction in trade barriers can potentially increase
industrial specialization by country and therefore resulting in more asymmetry business cycles from
industry-specific shocks. On the other hand, increased trade integration may result in more highly
correlated business cycles due to common demand shocks or intra-industry trade. If the second hypothesis
is empirically verified, policy makers have little to worry about the region being unsynchronized in their
business cycles as the business cycles will become more synchronized after the monetary union is formed.
This paper assesses the dynamic relationships between trade, finance, specialization and business cycle
synchronization for East Asian economies using a Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) approach.
The dynamic panel approach improves on previous efforts to examine the business cycle correlation –
trade link using panel procedures, which control for the potential endogeneity of all explanatory variables.
Based on the findings on how trade, finance and sectoral specialization have effects on the size of
common shocks among countries, potential policies that can help East Asian countries move close toward
a regional currency arrangement can be suggested. The empirical results of this study suggest that there
exists scope for East Asia to form a monetary union.
关键词：Optimum Currency Area; Monetary Union; Trade Integration; Business Cycle Synchronisation
JEL codes: E3, F1
