期刊名称：Discussion Paper Series / Department of Economics, Monash University
出版年度：2009
卷号：1
出版社：Monash University
摘要：This paper assesses the empirical desirability of the East Asian economies to an alternative
exchange rate arrangement (a monetary union) that can potentially enhance the exchange rate
stability and credibility in the region. Specifically, the symmetry in macroeconomic
disturbances of the East Asian economies is examined as satisfying one of the preconditions
for forming an Optimum Currency Area (OCA). We extend the existing literature by
improving the methodology of assessing the symmetry shocks in evaluating the suitability of
a common currency area in the East Asian economies employing the Bayesian State-Space
Based approach. We consider a model of an economy in which the output is influenced by
global, regional and country-specific shocks. The importance of a common regional shock
would provide a case for a regional common currency. This model allows us to examine
regional and country-specific cycles simultaneously with the world business cycle. The
importance of the shocks decomposition is that studying a subset of countries can lead one to
believe that observed co-movement is particular to that subset of countries when it in fact is
common to a much larger group of countries. In addition, the understanding of the sources of
international economic fluctuations is important for making policy decisions. Our findings
also indicate that regional factors play a minor role in explaining output variation in both
East Asian and the European economies. This implies that while East Asia does not satisfy
the OCA criteria (based on the insignificant share of regional common factor), neither does
Europe.
关键词：Optimum Currency Area; Business Cycle Synchronisation, Monetary Integration;
East Asia
