期刊名称：Discussion Paper Series / Department of Economics, Monash University
出版年度：2009
卷号：1
出版社：Monash University
摘要：This paper establishes a Tobin’s q model in which house prices fluctuate around their
long run equilibrium due to fluctuations in credit availability and income. It is shown that house
prices are positively related to credit in the short run, however, negatively related to the
availability of credit in the long run. Using survey data on banks’ willingness to lend and data on
disintermediation for the U.S. over a long period and for nine OECD countries over a short
period it is shown that the availability of credit is the principal variable driving house prices
around their long run equilibrium. Shocks to interest rates and income have only secondary
effects on house price fluctuations.
