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文章基本信息

  • 标题:The Forward Premium Puzzle: New Evidence from Futures Contracts
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Kerstin Bernoth ; Juergen von Hagen ; Casper de Vries
  • 期刊名称:DNB Working Papers / De Nederlandsche Bank
  • 出版年度:2007
  • 卷号:1
  • 出版社:De Nederlandsche Bank
  • 摘要:

    The forward premium puzzle is the negative correlation between the forward premium and the realized exchange rate return at maturities of a month and beyond. Some recent evidence shows that at maturities of multiple years and at the highest intra day frequency the correlation is positive and close to one. This paper contributes by using futures data instead of forwards to complete the maturity spectrum at the (multi-) day level. We find that the correlation only slowly turns negative as the number of days to maturity is increased to the monthly level. The typical shape of the premium correlation with regard to the forward maturity length appears to be V-shaped.

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