摘要：Many business situations require decision and action under very incomplete states of
knowledge, that do not allow the use of the most rigorous quantitative approaches - where there
are at best only “weak signals” of impending problems or opportunities. While the idea of a
weak signal is often invoked, existing management theory regarding this concept is very
incomplete. Borrowing concepts from weak signal analysis, this paper attempts to provide an
organizing perspective to the process of making management decisions in the presence of
inevitable uncertainties. Quantification itself and the use of formal methods are important tools
for amplifying signal strength to arrive at problem formulations. The discussion derives
hypotheses for further discussion and research, and provides an illustrative example from an
important real world business decision.
