期刊名称：Departmental Discussion Papers / University of Glasgow, Department of Economics
出版年度：2000
卷号：1
出版社：University of Glasgow, Department of Economics
摘要：We estimate forward-looking interest-rate reaction functions for some
EMS countries. We model inflation expectations assuming imperfect
information and learning. Reputational factors – the shift to a fiscal
dominance regime – and convergence to the German inflation rate are
found to be the main policy goals. We cannot detect evidence that the
target zone band was exploited to implement countercyclical policies:
Krugman’s honeymoon effect never materialized for these countries.
Thus, their enthusiastic joining of EMU is not particularly surprising.
On one hand, the risk of fiscal instability seems definitely staved off.
On the other, compared to what de facto happened under Bundesbank
leadership during the EMS years, ECB policies are more likely to take
into account their relative contribution to the European cycle.
