期刊名称：IVM Working Papers / Institute for Environmental Studies, Amsterdam
出版年度：2009
卷号：2009
出版社：Amsterdam
摘要：Effective decision-making requires information, but how much information is
enough and how much money should be invested in additional information is often
unclear. This paper attempts to assess the economic benefits of informational
investments, specifically of investments in Earth Observation (EO) for managing the
Great Barrier Reef. We develop an expert elicitation approach based on Bayesian
Decision Theory to estimate the expected contribution of informational investments
to decision-making. We hypothesize that EO can improve decision-making by
allowing for better-targeted emission reduction measures in the Great Barrier Reef
(GBR) lagoon. For assessing the benefits (cost savings) of improved targeting we
develop a model to optimize emission reductions under different states: emissions
from all catchments may affect reef quality, or emissions from certain catchments
may affect reef quality more. The states reflect the current uncertainties relating to
water quality management in the region.
The analysis suggests that the expected
benefits of EO information for managing the GBR can be substantial, and depend on
the perceived accuracy of EO information and on decision-makers prior beliefs.
关键词：Value of information, cost-effectiveness analysis, Earth
Observation, marine water quality management, Bayesian
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