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文章基本信息

  • 标题:Bank of England Interest Rate Announcements and the Foreign Exchange Market
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Michael Melvin ; Christian Saborowski ; Michael Sager
  • 期刊名称:International Journal of Central Banking
  • 印刷版ISSN:1815-4654
  • 出版年度:2010
  • 卷号:2010
  • 期号:03
  • 出版社:IJCB Publications Fulfillment
  • 摘要:

    Since 1997, the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has met monthly to set the UK policy interest rate. Using a Markov-switching framework that incorporates endogenous transition probabilities, we examine intraday, five-minute return data for evidence of systematic patterns in exchange rate movements on MPC policy announcement days. We find evidence for non-linear regime switching between a high-volatility, informed trading state and a low volatility, liquidity trading state. MPC surprise announcements are shown to significantly affect the probability that the market enters and remains within the informed trading regime, with some limited evidence of market positioning just prior to the announcement.

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