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  • 标题:Assessing the Sustainability of Credit Growth: The case of Central and Eastern European Countries
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Virginie Coudert, Cyril Pouvelle
  • 期刊名称:European Journal of Comparative Economics
  • 印刷版ISSN:1824-2979
  • 出版年度:2010
  • 卷号:7
  • 期号:01
  • 出版社:European Association for Comparative Economic Studies and Universita Carlo Cattaneo
  • 摘要:

    Credit growth rates as high as 30% or 50% a year were observed in some Central Eastern European countries (CEECs) in 2006-2007, such as the Baltic States, Bulgaria or Romania. This strong credit growth could have been due to the catching-up process but could also have been excessive, paving the way to the credit crunch that followed the crisis in 2008-2009. We try to assess the excessiveness of credit by applying a number of methods. First, we consider the gap between current credit and its long-term trend and we find some signs of credit booms, in several CEECs in 2005-2007. Second, we assess the "normal" growth of credit with regard to fundamentals through econometric estimations. Credit growth is also shown to have been excessive in several countries just before the 2008-2009 financial crisis.

  • 关键词:credit boom; transition; financial development
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