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文章基本信息

  • 标题:Why does Bad News Increase Volatility and Decrease Leverage?
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Fostel, Ana ; Geanakoplos, John
  • 期刊名称:International Monetary Fund Survey
  • 印刷版ISSN:0047-083X
  • 出版年度:2010
  • 期号:sep
  • 出版社:International Monetary Fund
  • 摘要:

    The literature on leverage until now shows how an increase in volatility reduces leverage. However, in order to explain pro-cyclical leverage it assumes that bad news increases volatility. This paper suggests a reason why bad news is more often than not associated with higher future volatility. We show that, in a model with endogenous leverage and heterogeneous beliefs, agents have the incentive to invest mostly in technologies that become volatile in bad times. Together with the old literature this explains pro-cyclical leverage. The result also gives rationale to the pattern of volatility smiles observed in the stock options since 1987. Finally, the paper presents for the first time a dynamic model in which an asset is endogenously traded simultaneously at different margin requirements in equilibrium

  • 关键词:Endogenous Leverage ; Post-Bad News Volatility ; Post-Good News Volatility ; Volatility Smile.
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