期刊名称：Cambridge Working Papers in Economics / Faculty of Economics ; Department of Applied Economics
出版年度：2005
卷号：1
出版社：Cambridge University
摘要：We provide a conceptual framework to analysis counterfactual scenarios using macroeconometric models. We consider UK entry to the euro. We derive conditional probability distributions for the difference between the future realisations of variables of interest subject to UK entry restrictions being fully met over a given period, and the alternative realisations without the restrictions. Economic interdependence means that such policy evaluation must take account of international linkages and common factors that drive fluctuations across economies. We use the Global VAR developed by Dees, di Mauro, Pesaran and Smith (2005). The paper briefly describes the GVAR which has been estimated for 25 countries and the euro area over the period 1979-2003. It reports probability estimates that output will be higher and prices lower in the UK and the euro area as a result of entry. It examines the sensitivity of these results to a variety of assumptions about UK entry.
关键词：Global VAR (GVAR), Counterfactual Analysis, euro.
