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  • 标题:Booms and busts in China’s stock market: Estimates based on fundamentals (594 KB)
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Gabe J. de Bondt ; Tuomas A. Peltonen ; Daniel Santabárbara
  • 期刊名称:Documentos de Trabajo / Banco de España
  • 印刷版ISSN:0213-2710
  • 电子版ISSN:1579-8666
  • 出版年度:2010
  • 卷号:1
  • 出版社:Banco de España
  • 摘要:

    This paper empirically models China’s stock prices using conventional fundamentals: corporate earnings, risk-free interest rate, and a proxy for equity risk premium. It uses the estimated long-run stock price misalignments to date booms and busts, and analyses equity market reforms and excess liquidity as potential drivers of these stock price misalignments. Our results show that China’s equity prices can be reasonable well modelled using fundamentals, but that various booms and busts can be identified. Policy actions, either taking the form of deposit rate changes, equity market reforms or excess liquidity, seem to have significantly contributed to these misalignments.

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