期刊名称：CREDIT Research Paper / University of Nottingham
出版年度：2010
卷号：1
出版社：Nottingham
摘要：This paper argues that SSA has derived a minimal growth benefit from trade because
of what it exports and that the detrimental effect of primary commodity export
dependence on SSA growth can be captured by two structural variables, natural
barriers to trade (NBT, trade costs) and natural resource endowments (NRE, primary
commodity dependence). The analysis is based on a large panel of developing
countries for 1970 to 2008 and explicitly tests for threshold effects in the structural
variables. We find that high trade costs and natural resource endowments have a
negative effect on growth and that the combination of these two factors accounts for
the SSA dummy: SSA countries tend to have high values of NRE and NBT and this
helps to explain why SSA countries experienced lower growth than other developing
countries (the significant negative dummy for SSA). The trade variables also
performed as expected. Exports and trade openness generally contribute to growth,
but their effect on growth is affected by the structural variables; specifically high
values as observed in SSA dampen the positive impact of trade on growth. The poor
growth of SSA relative to other regions is largely accounted for by the combination
of natural resource endowments and high transport costs so that the dependence on
primary commodity exports has not supported growth.
关键词：Trade and Growth, Natural Barriers to Trade, Primary Commodity Exports,
Sub-Saharan Africa
