期刊名称：Annals of the University of Petrosani : Economics
印刷版ISSN：1582-5949
电子版ISSN：2247-8620
出版年度：2010
卷号：X
期号：02
页码：85-98
出版社：University of Petrosani
摘要：Forecasting is an essential analytical tool for tourism policy andplanning. This paper focuses on forecasting methods based on ARFIMA(p,d,q)-FIGARCH(p,d,q). Secondary data was used to produce forecasts of international tourists’expenditures in Thailand for the period 2009-2010. The results of this research for this periodconfirms that the best forecasting method based on ARFIMA(p,d,q)-FIGARCH(p,d,q) method isthe ARFIMA(1,-0.672,1)-FIGARCH(1,-0.180,1) method. Furthermore, this method predicts theexpenditures of tourists in Thailand for the period of 2009-2010 will be constant or decline. Ifthese results can be generalized for future years, then it suggests that both the Thailandgovernment sector and also the private tourism industry sector of Thailand need to develop thetourism market of Thailand immediately and also develop tourism products in Thailand.
