摘要：This paper studies the transmission of a foreign fiscal policy shock (assumed to be generated
in Germany) to key macroeconomic variables in five Central and Eastern European economies
(CEE-5). We use quarterly data from 1995 to 2009 and estimate an open economy structural
vector autoregressive (SVAR) model identified by imposing reasonable restrictions on contemporaneous
responses in the system. Our model is able to identify well-known episodes of fiscal
policy action in the countries under review. We find that a foreign fiscal shock affects domestic
fiscal variables and vice versa, which highlights the importance of cross-country coordination
of fiscal policies within the EU. All the CEE-5 respond to a fiscal expansion abroad with
fiscal easing at home (more strongly on the public spending than on the revenue side). We
find negative cross-border fiscal spillovers for Slovenia, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, while
in Poland and Hungary, output reacts positively to a fiscal expansion in Germany. For domestic
fiscal shocks, which we also explore, we find Keynesian responses in Hungary and Slovakia,
while non-Keynesian responses are present in the Czech Republic, Poland and Slovenia. Our
results imply that “one-size-fits-all” policy recommendations would be too simplistic for the
CEE-5; a deeper understanding of the reasons for cross-country differences in response to fiscal
shocks is required to be able to provide adequate information to policymakers in these
countries
关键词：fiscal policy, cross-border spillovers, fiscal multiplier, foreign shock, structural vector
autoregression, Central and Eastern Europe, Germany
