摘要：Global warming potentials (GWPs) are the metrics currently used to compare
emissions of different greenhouse gases under the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change. Future changes in greenhouse gas concentrations
will alter GWPs because the radiative efficiencies of marginal changes in
CO2,
CH4 and
N2O depend on their background concentrations, the removal of
CO2 is influenced by climate–carbon cycle feedbacks, and atmospheric residence times of
CH4 and
N2O also depend on ambient temperature and other environmental changes. We
calculated the currently foreseeable future changes in the absolute GWP of
CO2, which acts as the denominator for the calculation of all GWPs, and specifically the GWPs of
CH4 and
N2O, along
four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) up to the year 2100. We find that the absolute GWP
of CO2 decreases under all RCPs, although for longer time horizons this decrease is smaller than for
short time horizons due to increased climate–carbon cycle feedbacks. The 100-year GWP of
CH4 would increase up to 20% under the lowest RCP by 2100 but would decrease
by up to 10% by mid-century under the highest RCP. The 100-year GWP of
N2O would increase by more than 30% by 2100 under the highest RCP but would vary by less
than 10% under other scenarios. These changes are not negligible but are mostly smaller
than the changes that would result from choosing a different time horizon for GWPs, or
from choosing altogether different metrics for comparing greenhouse gas emissions, such as
global temperature change potentials.
