摘要：Recent reviews have concluded that efforts to date have yet to detect or attribute
an anthropogenic climate change influence on Atlantic tropical cyclone (of at
least tropical storm strength) behaviour and concomitant damage. However, the
possibility of identifying such influence in the future cannot be ruled out. Using
projections of future tropical cyclone activity from a recent prominent study we
estimate the time that it would take for anthropogenic signals to emerge in a time
series of normalized US tropical cyclone losses. Depending on the global climate
model(s) underpinning the projection, emergence timescales range between 120
and 550 years, reflecting a large uncertainty. It takes 260 years for an 18-model
ensemble-based signal to emerge. Consequently, under the projections examined here, the
detection or attribution of an anthropogenic signal in tropical cyclone loss data is
extremely unlikely to occur over periods of several decades (and even longer). This
caution extends more generally to global weather-related natural disaster losses.
