摘要：Groundwater systems in arid regions will be particularly sensitive to climate change owing
to the strong dependence of rates of evapotranspiration on temperature, and
shifts in the precipitation regimes. In agricultural areas, such changes in climate
may require increased irrigation, putting stress on existing water supplies. In this
study, a regional-scale numerical groundwater model was developed for the Oliver
region of the south Okanagan, British Columbia, Canada, to simulate the impacts
of future predicted climate change on groundwater. In future time periods (the
2050s and 2080s), the most noticeable change in the water budget is the increased
contribution of recharge to the annual water budget, estimated at 1.2% (2050s) and
1.4% (2080s) of the total annual budget relative to the current conditions. This
increase is related primarily to increases to irrigation return flow resulting from
higher irrigation needs under warmer temperatures and a longer growing season.
Increases in recharge and irrigation return flow will result in higher water tables
with future climate conditions, particularly in the irrigation districts. Median
value increases in groundwater level of up to 0.7 m by the 2080s are estimated.
