摘要：A process-based model (Forest-DNDC) was applied to describe
the possible impacts of climate change on carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes from a peat bog in European Russia. In the first step, Forest-DNDC was tested against
CO2 fluxes
measured by the eddy covariance method on an oligotrophic bog in a representative region of the southern
taiga (56°N 33°E). The results of model validations show that Forest-DNDC is capable of quantifying the
CO2 fluxes from the bog ecosystem. In the second step, the validated model was used to
estimate how the expected future changes of the air temperature and water table
depth could affect the C dynamics in the bogs. It was shown that a decrease in
the water table and an increase in temperature influence significantly the
CO2 exchange between our bog ecosystem and the atmosphere. Under elevated temperature and
deepened water table the bog ecosystems could become a significant source of atmospheric
CO2.
