摘要：We assess the human health and economic impacts of projected 2000–2050 changes in
ozone pollution using the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis - Health Effects
(EPPA-HE) model, in combination with results from the GEOS-Chem global tropospheric
chemistry model of climate and chemistry effects of projected future emissions. We
use EPPA-HE to assess the human health damages (including mortality and
morbidity) caused by ozone pollution, and quantify their economic impacts in
sixteen world regions. We compare the costs of ozone pollution under scenarios
with 2000 and 2050 ozone precursor and greenhouse gas emissions (using the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions
Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario). We estimate that health costs due to global ozone
pollution above pre-industrial levels by 2050 will be $580 billion (year 2000$) and
that mortalities from acute exposure will exceed 2 million. We find that previous
methodologies underestimate costs of air pollution by more than a third because they do
not take into account the long-term, compounding effects of health costs. The
economic effects of emissions changes far exceed the influence of climate alone.
