摘要：Climatic effects of forest cover change have been investigated for Hungary. For the time
period 2071–100 we have analyzed whether the climate change signal for summer
precipitation and the probability of droughts can be reduced assuming maximal
afforestation for the entire country (forests covering all vegetated areas). The
biogeophysical effects of land cover change have been assessed using the results of an A1B
IPCC-SRES emission scenario from REMO (regional climate model at the Max Planck
Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg). The simulation results indicate that afforestation may
reduce the projected climate change through higher evapotranspiration and precipitation as
well as lower surface temperature for the entire summer period. The magnitude of the
feedback of the forest cover increase on precipitation differs among regions. The strongest
effects are visible in the northeastern part of the country. Here, half of the projected
precipitation decrease can be relieved and the total number of drought events
can be reduced, assuming maximal afforestation. Afforestation brings about the
smallest climatic effect in the southwestern region, in the area that shows the
strongest climate change. The results can help to identify areas where forest cover
increase should most effectively support the alleviation of climate change effects.
