期刊名称：Discussion Paper / Département des Sciences Économiques de l'Université Catholique de Louvain
印刷版ISSN：1379-244X
出版年度：2006
卷号：1
出版社：Université catholique de Louvain
摘要：This paper examines in an endogenous growth theory perspective the mechanisms through which epidemics affect long term growth. Investment in both physical and human capital are key transmission variables in this respect. The paper distinguishes between Spanish flu like epidemics and AIDS like epidemics. Two-sector growth models are shown to better reflect the specific effects of epidemics. The effects of an AIDS like pandemic on savings and education effort are also modelled via life expectancy. The paper is closed by an extension of the celebrated Cuddington-Hancock model to account for the latter features. An application to the South African case is provided. The main finding points at a delayed effect of Aids on economic growth due to the recent sharp drop in llife expectancy in this country.
关键词：Epidemics, Human capital, Life expectancy, Growth theory, Spanish flu, AIDS
