期刊名称：Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
印刷版ISSN：0027-8424
电子版ISSN：1091-6490
出版年度：1974
卷号：71
期号：9
页码：3377-3379
DOI：10.1073/pnas.71.9.3377
语种：English
出版社：The National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
摘要：A mathematical theory was developed, based on diffusion models, that enables us to compute the probability of a rare mutant allele eventually spreading through a population when the population size changes with time. In particular, we elaborated the case in which the mutant allele has a definite selective advantage and the population expands following the logistic law. In this case, the probability of ultimate fixation of a single mutant is given by u = 2s(Z/N), where s is the selective advantage and Z/N is a factor by which the probability of fixation is modified through population expansion. Analytical expression was obtained for Z/N, and the validity of the formula for u was checked by Monte Carlo experiments.
关键词：population genetics ; diffusion model ; fixation probability of mutant ; logistic population
