期刊名称：Berichte aus dem Weltwirtschaftlichen Colloquium / Universität Bremen
出版年度：2012
期号：123
出版社：Universität Bremen
摘要：In this contribution the impacts of the global food price increases of 2010/2011 on
Africa are assessed. The impacts are severe, but there are differences with regard of
country groupings, social groups and sub-regions. The various impacts have to be
studied carefully as these do not affect only the macro-economy and the poor people,
but also the development options and the long-term development perspectives of Africa.
However, definitions and classifications have to be clarified first to understand
the transmission effects and the poverty impacts of the global food price increases. It
has to be made clear which food items, which African countries and which country
groupings are affected by the price increases on the world market. Fragile and conflict
countries, food insecure countries and oil exporting countries are affected most by the
global price increases of food products and especially of staple crops. But also the
poor in net food exporting countries may suffer.
African countries are exporters of food and agriculture products but wheat and rice
are important import commodities. The transmission effects of global price increases
to domestic prices and the impacts of price increases on the poor (looked at as consumers
and producers) are considered as well. Empirical evidence that is available
from the 2007/2008 global food price increases shows that in many cases there is no
long-term relationship between changes in international and changes of domestic food
prices in Africa, so that local, national and sub-regional structural factors are important
for explaining the fact of high and increasing domestic prices.
The speculation with raw materials and raw materials certificates on international finance
markets has an impact on the spot prices too. This also refers to global food
prices. However, the role of local factors in Africa being responsible for speculation
should not be ignored. The analysis of the transmission effects shows that the impacts
of international food prices on domestic food prices should not be overestimated; these
effects are limited. Other mechanisms may play a larger role, especially the land
sales and land leases in Africa. Studies on ¡°land grabbing¡± show that such land sales
and land leases are a great problem in institutionally weak countries as such land may
be used for speculative hoarding rather than for productive cultivation. Such deals
could aggravate the food supply situation in such countries.
Public interventions are needed at national, regional and global levels to work out feasible
strategies which may help to counterbalance the impacts of global food price increases
and to overcome the structural factors being responsible for the food price increases
in Africa. The most important measures to be taken at national, regional and
global level are listed and discussed. A package of measures is then proposed by referring
to short-term, medium-term and long-term actions.
关键词：Global food price increases; African food prices; food security; structural
impediments to food production; food imports and exports; global food price transmission
