摘要：Problem statement: The prediction is very useful in solar energy applications because it permits to estimate solar data for locations where measurements are not available. The developed artificial intelligence models predict the solar radiation time series more effectively compared to the conventional procedures based on the clearness index. Approach: The forecasting ability of some models could be further enhanced with the use of additional meteorological parameters. After having simulated many different structures of neural networks and trained using measurements as training data, the best structures were selected in order to evaluate their performance in relation with the performance of a neuro-fuzzy system. As the alternative system, ANFIS neuro-fuzzy system was considered, because it combines fuzzy logic and neural network techniques that are used in order to gain more efficiency. ANFIS is trained with the same data. Results: The comparison and the evaluation of both of the systems were done according to their predictions, using several error metrics. Fuzzy model was trained using data of daily solar radiation recorded on a horizontal surface in National Research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics, Helwan, Egypt (NARIG) at ten years (1991-2000). Conclusion: The predicting conclusion indicated that the TS fuzzy model gave a good accuracy of approximately 96% and a root mean square error lower than 6%.
关键词：Forecasting ability; neural network; neuro-fuzzy system; error metrics; Wang-Mendel Method (WM); solar radiation; Fuzzy Predictor (FP); Truth Degree (TD); alternative system; Auto-Regressive Moving Average (ARMA); Auto-Regressive (AR)
