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  • 标题:The Study of Causal Relationship between Stock Market Indices and Macroeconomic Variables in Cote d’Ivoire: Evidence from Error-Correction Models and Granger Causality Test
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Drama Bedi HERVE ; Bouphanuvong Chanmalai ; Yao Shen
  • 期刊名称:International Journal of Business and Management
  • 印刷版ISSN:1833-3850
  • 电子版ISSN:1833-8119
  • 出版年度:2011
  • 卷号:6
  • 期号:12
  • 页码:146
  • DOI:10.5539/ijbm.v6n12p146
  • 出版社:Canadian Center of Science and Education
  • 摘要:

    This paper investigates the role of macroeconomic variables on stock prices movement in Cote d’Ivoire. We
    utilize the stock price index (SPI) call BRVM10 to represent Cote d’Ivoire stock market and some relevant
    macroeconomic variables such as industrial production index (IPI), consumer price index (CPI), domestic
    interest rate (IR), real exchange rate (EXR) and real money supply (M2). We examine both long-run and short-run
    dynamic relationships between the stock market index and the economic variables with quarterly data covering
    the period of 1999:1 to 2007:4 using Johansen's multivariate cointegration test techniques. The study identified
    that there is cointegration between macroeconomic variables and Stock prices in Cote d’Ivoire indicating
    long-run relationship. The results of Impulse Response Function (IRF) and Forecast Error Variance
    Decomposition (FEVD) demonstrate that out of five macroeconomic variables selected, only consumer price
    index (CPI) and domestic interest rate (IR) are the key determinants of the stock price movements in Cote
    d’Ivoire. The Granger-causality test based on the vector autoregressive (VAR) analytical framework was
    employed to empirically reveal that there is strong bi-directional relationship between stock price index (SPI) and
    domestic interest rate (IR).Thus, changes in the domestic interest rate might be used to predict the future stock
    price movement. The research also found that macroeconomic factors are not appropriate indicators to forecast
    the future behavior of the stock index movements in Cote d’Ivoire.

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