首页    期刊浏览 2024年11月27日 星期三
登录注册

文章基本信息

  • 标题:Modelling Exchange Rate Volatility using GARCH Models: Empirical Evidence from Arab Countries
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Suliman Zakaria Suliman Abdalla
  • 期刊名称:International Journal of Economics and Finance
  • 印刷版ISSN:1916-971X
  • 电子版ISSN:1916-9728
  • 出版年度:2012
  • 卷号:4
  • 期号:3
  • 页码:216
  • DOI:10.5539/ijef.v4n3p216
  • 出版社:Canadian Center of Science and Education
  • 摘要:

    This paper considers the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic approach in modelling exchange rate volatility in a panel of nineteen of the Arab countries using daily observations over the period of 1st January 2000 to 19th November 2011. The paper applies both symmetric and asymmetric models that capture most common stylized facts about exchange rate returns such as volatility clustering and leverage effect. Based on the GARCH(1,1) model, the results show that for ten out of nineteen currencies the sum of the estimated persistent coefficients exceed one, implying that volatility is an explosive process, in contrast, it is quite persistent for seven currencies, a result which is required to have a mean reverting variance process. Furthermore, the asymmetrical EGARCH (1,1) results provide evidence of leverage effect for majority of currencies, indicating that negative shocks imply a higher next period volatility than positive shocks. Finally, the paper concludes that the exchange rates volatility can be adequately modelled by the class of GARCH models.

国家哲学社会科学文献中心版权所有