摘要：Biomass from cellulosic bioenergy crops is expected to play a substantial role in future
energy systems, especially if climate policy aims at stabilizing greenhouse gas concentration
at low levels. However, the potential of bioenergy for climate change mitigation remains
unclear due to large uncertainties about future agricultural yield improvements and land
availability for biomass plantations. This letter, by applying a modelling framework with detailed economic representation of
the land and energy sector, explores the cost-effective contribution of bioenergy to a
low-carbon transition, paying special attention to implications for the land system. In this
modelling framework, bioenergy competes directly with other energy technology options on
the basis of costs, including implicit costs due to biophysical constraints on land and water
availability. As a result, we find that bioenergy from specialized grassy and woody bioenergy crops,
such as Miscanthus or poplar, can contribute approximately 100 EJ in 2055 and up to 300
EJ of primary energy in 2095. Protecting natural forests decreases biomass availability for
energy production in the medium, but not in the long run. Reducing the land available for
agricultural use can partially be compensated for by means of higher rates of technological
change in agriculture. In addition, our trade-off analysis indicates that forest protection
combined with large-scale cultivation of dedicated bioenergy is likely to affect bioenergy
potentials, but also to increase global food prices and increase water scarcity.
Therefore, integrated policies for energy, land use and water management are needed.
