摘要：Since the end of World War II, global agriculture has undergone a period of rapid
intensification achieved through a combination of increased applications of chemical
fertilizers, pesticides, and herbicides, the implementation of best management
practice techniques, mechanization, irrigation, and more recently, through the use
of optimized seed varieties and genetic engineering. However, not all crops and
not all regions of the world have realized the same improvements in agricultural
intensity. In this study we examine both the magnitude and spatial variation of
new agricultural production potential from closing of 'yield gaps' for 20 ethanol
and biodiesel feedstock crops. With biofuels coming under increasing pressure to
slow or eliminate indirect land-use conversion, the use of targeted intensification
via established agricultural practices might offer an alternative for continued
growth. We find that by closing the 50th percentile production gap—essentially
improving global yields to median levels—the 20 crops in this study could provide
approximately 112.5 billion liters of new ethanol and 8.5 billion liters of new biodiesel
production. This study is intended to be an important new resource for scientists and
policymakers alike—helping to more accurately understand spatial variation of yield and
agricultural intensification potential, as well as employing these data to better utilize
existing infrastructure and optimize the distribution of development and aid capital.
