首页    期刊浏览 2024年11月25日 星期一
登录注册

文章基本信息

  • 标题:The Role of Oscillatory Modes in U.S. Business Cycles
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Andreas Groth ; Michael Ghil ; Stéphane Hallegatte
  • 期刊名称:FEEM Working Papers / Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei = Nota di Lavoro
  • 出版年度:2012
  • 卷号:2012
  • 出版社:Milano
  • 摘要:

    We apply the advanced time-and-frequency-domain method of singular spectrum analysis to study business cycle dynamics in a set of nine U.S. macroeconomic indicators. This method provides a robust way to identify and reconstruct shared oscillations, whether intermittent or modulated. We address the problem of spurious cycles generated by the use of detrending filters and present a Monte Carlo test to extract significant oscillations. Finally, we demonstrate that the behavior of the U.S. economy changes significantly between episodes of growth and recession; these variations cannot be generated by random shocks alone, in the absence of endogenous variability.

  • 关键词:Advanced Spectral Methods; Comovements; Frequency Domain; Monte Carlo testing; ;Time Domain
国家哲学社会科学文献中心版权所有