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  • 标题:What Social Cost of Carbon? A mapping of the Climate Debate
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Baptiste Perrissin Fabert ; Patrice Dumas ; Jean-Charles Hourcade
  • 期刊名称:FEEM Working Papers / Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei = Nota di Lavoro
  • 出版年度:2012
  • 卷号:2012
  • 出版社:Milano
  • 摘要:

    Given disparate beliefs about economic growth, technical change and damage caused by climate change, this paper starts with the seeming impossibility of determining a unique time profile of the social costs of carbon as a benchmark for climate negotiations and for infrastructure decisions that need to be made now in the absence of an inclusive international accord on climate policies. The paper demonstrates that determining a workable range of the social costs of carbon is however possible in a sequential decision-making framework that permits revising initial decisions in the light of new information. To do so, the paper exploits the results of a stochastic optimal control model run for more than 2000 scenarios that represent the set of beliefs presented about key uncertain parameters in the literature. The paper provides a heuristic mapping of the climate debate in the form of six “clubs of opinions” and shows the possibility of determining a range of social costs of carbon that might permit a compromise between the maximum range of “clubs” and those most likely to emerge in the future.

  • 关键词:Optimal control; Mitigation; Social Cost of Carbon; Uncertainty
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