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  • 标题:Building SSPs for Climate Policy Analysis: A Scenario Elicitation Methodology to Map the Space of Possible Future Challenges to Mitigation and Adaptation
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Julie Rozenberg ; Céline Guivarch ; Robert Lempert
  • 期刊名称:FEEM Working Papers / Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei = Nota di Lavoro
  • 出版年度:2012
  • 卷号:2012
  • 出版社:Milano
  • 摘要:

    The scientific community is now developing a new set of scenarios, referred to as Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) to replace the SRES scenarios. To be used to investigate adaptation and mitigation, SSPs need to be contrasted along two axes: challenges to mitigation, and challenges to adaptation. This paper proposes a methodology to develop SSPs with a “backward” approach. The methodology is based on (i) an a priori identification of potential drivers of mitigation and adaptation challenges; (ii) a modelling exercise to transform these drivers into a large set of scenarios; (iii) an a posteriori selection of a few SSPs among these scenarios, such that they cover the uncertainty space in terms of challenges to adaptation and mitigation. This methodology is applied to the selection of a few SSPs, but it could also be applied to any specific decisions faced by decision-makers. From a large database of runs built by many models, the methodology would allow selecting the most relevant scenarios for a specific decision, i.e. scenarios that best predict when the analyzed choice performs poorly or well.

  • 关键词:Socio-Economic Scenarios; Climate Policy; Mitigation; Adaptation; Shared ;Socio-Economic Pathways; Scenario Elicitation Methodology
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