摘要：Schistosomiasis is a serious public health problem in the middle-lower Yangtze River Basin in China. Study of spatial variation of snail distribution that is related to microgeographic factors can help to choose pertinent measures for snail extinguishment and environment rebuilding. This paper studied the theoretical architecture of weights-of-evidence approach. The case study was made for spatial relation between the occurrence of infected snails and geographic factor combinations in Waijiazhou marshland of Poyang Lake region in China. The multievidence data came from the geographical factor combinations by crossing operation of vegetation coverage grade layer, cattle route distance grade layer, and special environment layer (181 combinations in total) in GIS. The calculation of weight contrast index shows that high vegetation coverage, cattle route distance of <45 meters, and special geographic factor “ground depression” had direct spatial relation with the occurrence of infected snails. The verification by crossing operation in GIS indicated 72.45% of the infected snails concentrated on the areas of positive weight contrast index (sequenced in an order of weight contrast index from high to low), demonstrating the high efficiency of the model established in finding infected snails according to the geographic factor combinations that can be explicitly discerned in the study area.
关键词：weights of evidence; Bayesian conditional probability; infected snail; Poyang Lake region
