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  • 标题:Extreme value theory in emerging markets
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Anđelić Goran ; Milošev Ivana ; Đaković Vladimir
  • 期刊名称:Economic annals
  • 印刷版ISSN:0013-3264
  • 电子版ISSN:1820-7375
  • 出版年度:2010
  • 卷号:55
  • 期号:185
  • 页码:63-105
  • DOI:10.2298/EKA1085063A
  • 出版社:Faculty of Economics, Belgrade
  • 摘要:

    This paper investigates the performance of extreme value theory (EVT) with the daily stock index returns of four different emerging markets. The research covers the sample representing the Serbian (BELEXline), Croatian (CROBEX), Slovenian (SBI20), and Hungarian (BUX) stock indexes using the data from January 2006 - September 2009. In the paper a performance test was carried out for the success of application of the extreme value theory in estimating and forecasting of the tails of daily return distribution of the analyzed stock indexes. Therefore the main goal is to determine whether EVT adequately estimates and forecasts the tails (2.5% and 5% at the tail) of daily stock index return distribution in the emerging markets of Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia, and Hungary. The applied methodology during the research includes analysis, synthesis and statistical/mathematical methods. Research results according to estimated Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) parameters indicate the necessity of applying market risk estimation methods, i.e. extreme value theory (EVT) in the framework of a broader analysis of investment processes in emerging markets.

  • 关键词:extreme value theory; value at risk; risk management; generalized pareto distribution; emerging markets
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