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文章基本信息

  • 标题:Transition and growth: What was taught and what happened
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Cerović Božidar ; Nojković Aleksandra
  • 期刊名称:Economic annals
  • 印刷版ISSN:0013-3264
  • 电子版ISSN:1820-7375
  • 出版年度:2009
  • 卷号:54
  • 期号:183
  • 页码:7-31
  • DOI:10.2298/EKA0983007C
  • 出版社:Faculty of Economics, Belgrade
  • 摘要:

    The paper demonstrates why the transition process is taking more time than predicted and why many countries are still far away from the projected goal: a developed market economy. Analyzing the causes and re-examining the endogenous character of the transition progress, the authors conclude that the majority of reforms were implemented at a pace conditional on the initial, pre-transition conditions. The results obtained show a significant impact on the economic and institutional heritage of a country, which lasts much longer than was predicted on the eve of the reform process: initial conditions strongly and significantly affect the speed of transition throughout the entire observed period (1989-2007). They also affect the performance of a country: in the first years the transition progress may affect growth in a positive way, but later it becomes insignificant. This can explain some growth peculiarities previously remarked when transition countries were analyzed by means of long-run growth models. Using Barro and Levine-Renelt models the authors show that despite somewhat better results for the second decade of transition many peculiar patterns remain, which could temporarily block poorer transition economies in their attempts to catch up and cause unnecessary losses since transition policies were not properly adjusted to the initial conditions.

  • 关键词:transition economies; transition progress; initial conditions; transition recession; growth; economic performance; comparative economics
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