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  • 标题:Relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty: The case of Serbia
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Mladenović Zorica
  • 期刊名称:Yugoslav Journal of Operations Research
  • 印刷版ISSN:0354-0243
  • 电子版ISSN:1820-743X
  • 出版年度:2009
  • 卷号:19
  • 期号:1
  • 页码:171-183
  • DOI:10.2298/YJOR0901171M
  • 出版社:Faculty of Organizational Sciences, Belgrade, Mihajlo Pupin Institute, Belgrade, Economics Institute, Belgrade, Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering, Belgrade, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Belgrade
  • 摘要:

    The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in the Serbian economy, being particularly vulnerable to shocks in inflation rate, during transition period 2001 - 2007. Based on monthly data several GARCH specifications are estimated to provide the measure for inflation uncertainty. Derived variables are then included into VAR model to test for Granger-causality between inflation and its uncertainty. Models that consider only permanent and transitory components of prices are also estimated to investigate the inflation-uncertainty relationship in the long and in the short run. The main conclusion of the paper is that high inflation invokes high uncertainty, while high uncertainty negatively affects the level of inflation at long horizon.

  • 关键词:GARCH model; inflation rate; the Cukierman-Meltzer hypothesis; the Friedman-Ball hypothesis; VAR model
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