出版社：Juraj Dobrila University of Pula, Department of Economics and Tourism 'Dr. Mijo Mirkovic'
摘要：This paper is an attempt of applying Business Survey results in creation of a holistic macroeconomic model for Croatia. Since the BUSY model (1982.), there exists an aspiration for forming a statistical business survey model that will forecast main GDP components for individual EU countries in the short run. However, the idea hasn’t yet been applied in practice in Croatia. Therefore the statistical relationship between the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) and corresponding official statistics series will be analyzed in order to see how the changes in ESI reflect on various segments of economic activity in Croatia. On the basis of two VAR models it can be seen that ESI can help in short-run forecasting of Croatian GDP and private consumption as its main component. It was shown that other GDP components don’t exhibit a strong statistical connection with ESI.
关键词：ESI; business survey; VAR model; GDP components
