出版社：Institut za migracije i narodnosti / Institute for Migration and Ethnic Studies, Zagreb
摘要：The paper is of a methodological character. It discusses methods for the quantitative modelling of migration as the most inclusive variables of population movements. Two approaches to creating migration models are outlined: the demographic and the demometric modelling approach. The paper explains the long-term determinants of migration through time sections, and the interdependence between migration movements and the selected variables that influence them. Special emphasis is placed on modelling migration with the help of the demometric models. The theoretic approach to the problem of specifying demometric migration models (selection of variables for a given model, defining possible links and dependencies among them, and the selection of a possible analytic form of the demometric migration model) is also discussed. Demographic and demometric methods for producing migration models can be mutually distinguished by the ease of their application, as well as by their reliance and objectivity, and therefore they give different results. Demometric migration models have the following advantages: simplicity and applicability in a large number of cases, consideration of all the relevant variables effecting migration, the possibility of determining the individual effects of the variables within their combined system, their easy interpretation and numerical analysis, and the fact that prediction on the basis of such models can be made directly. The paper illustrates the application and the need for further development of the set of modern quantitative methods and techniques in regard to the analysis of migration movements.
